- GRIT
- Posts
- 👉 The Next Test(s) for the Bull Market
Together with NEOS
Welcome to your new week.
During market swings, it’s always best to stay well-informed! If you want full access to our Week in Review editions, monthly livestreams , portfolio access, monthly stock deep dives, and more — consider upgrading your subscription.
Let’s dive right in.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Cerebras, Darden, FedEx, and Micron highlight this week.
Monday (6/22): N/A
Tuesday (6/23): Carnival Corp, Cerebras, FedEx
Wednesday (6/24): H.B. Fuller, Jefferies, Micron, Paychex
Thursday (6/25): BlackBerry, Darden Restaurants, McCormick, FedEx Freight, Wise
Friday (6/26): N/A
Seek Monthly Income. Aim to Navigate Uncertainty. Stay Invested.
Markets remain unpredictable, rate expectations keep shifting, equity volatility persists, and questions around tariffs and the AI trade continue to drive uncertainty.
As investors consider portfolio positioning for 2026, NEOS ETFs may offer a way to stay invested across equities, fixed income, and alternative asset classes while seeking outcomes like monthly income, enhanced tax efficiency, upside potential or in some cases, a measure of downside protection.
The award-winning firm behind the ETF.com “Best New Active ETF” and ETF Express “Best Options Strategies ETF Issuer ($1–10bn)” offers a suite of options-based ETFs that aim to harness volatility for monthly income, enhance after-tax outcomes, and potentially complement core allocations.
From equity and alternative high income strategies, to enhanced fixed income strategies, NEOS aims to deliver Next Evolution Options Strategies for today’s uncertain markets.
Explore their award-winning lineup at https://neosfunds.com/.
What We’re Watching:
FedEx (FDX)
FedEx (+12.9% YTD) reports Q4 FY2026 earnings Monday after the close, with investors focused on whether the company can keep improving profitability while global freight demand remains uneven. The stock has been supported by cost cuts, network consolidation, pricing discipline, and the planned FedEx Freight spin-off, but investors still need to see that margins can expand without a major rebound in shipping volumes.
Last quarter, FedEx delivered $24.0 billion in revenue and $5.25 in adjusted EPS, beating expectations on both the top and bottom line. Management also raised its full-year FY2026 outlook, now expecting revenue growth of 6.0%–6.5% and adjusted EPS of $19.30–$20.10, helped by stronger B2B volumes, ongoing cost savings, and progress across its broader transformation plan.
This quarter, the focus will be on package volume trends, international demand, fuel cost pressure, and whether FedEx’s cost-cutting efforts are creating sustainable margin improvement. Commentary around the FedEx Freight separation will also be important, especially as investors look for signs that the spin-off can unlock value while the core parcel business continues to become more efficient.
“Revenue share gains in our priority B2B verticals were an important driver of our Q3 performance.”
FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Micron (MU)
Micron (+297% YTD) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings Tuesday after the close, with investors focused on whether the AI memory boom is still accelerating. The stock has surged this year as demand for high-bandwidth memory, DRAM, and NAND has tightened supply, lifted pricing, and turned Micron into one of the biggest earnings-growth stories in the market.
Last quarter, Micron delivered $17.2 billion in revenue and $10.13 in adjusted EPS, with management pointing to strong demand across data center, AI servers, and HBM. Wall Street is now looking for another major step-up, with consensus expecting roughly $35.6 billion in revenue and $20.57 in adjusted EPS for the May quarter as memory pricing remains firm and AI-related demand continues to absorb supply.
Heading into this print, I’ll be watching HBM revenue growth, DRAM pricing, gross margins, and whether management signals that supply remains tight into the back half of the year. The key risk is that expectations have moved sharply higher, meaning Micron may need more than just a strong quarter — investors will likely want a beat, raised guidance, and confidence that the AI memory cycle still has room to run. Reuters noted investors are treating Micron’s report as a pulse check on whether the broader AI rally can keep its momentum.
“Micron set new records across revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow in fiscal Q2, driven by a strong demand environment, tight industry supply, and our strong execution, and we expect significant records again in fiscal Q3”
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Amazon Prime Day kicks off and U.S. & Iran peace talks continue in Switzerland.
Amazon Prime Day
Source: Amazon
Amazon’s four-day Prime Day sales event begins this week, giving investors an early read on consumer appetite for discretionary spending, deal-seeking behavior, and online retail demand. What started as an Amazon-only shopping holiday has effectively turned into a broader summer sales week, with Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Kohl’s, and other major retailers running overlapping promotions.
This provides a real-time pulse check on the consumer. Strong Prime Day demand would suggest households are still willing to spend when discounts are attractive, especially across electronics, home goods, apparel, and everyday essentials. A weaker event, or one driven mostly by heavy promotions, would point to a more cautious shopper and could pressure margins across retail.
Amazon Inc. (AMZN) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“Last year, U.S. retailers drove $24.1 billion in online spend from July 8 to July 11, representing 30.3% growth year-over-year. This is more than two Black Fridays and sets a new benchmark for the summer shopping season.”
U.S. & Iran Peace Talks Continue
Source: Yahoo Finance
U.S. and Iranian officials began high-level peace talks in Switzerland this weekend aimed at settling Iran’s nuclear program, permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and extending the fragile pause in regional fighting. The meetings include U.S., Iranian, Qatari, and Pakistani representatives, with Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi among the key attendees.
The talks got off to a messy start after Iranian media reported that Tehran had halted discussions over President Trump’s latest threat to strike Iran if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel. People familiar with the matter later said negotiations were still continuing, underscoring how fragile the process remains. The key sticking points include sanctions relief, frozen Iranian assets, Hormuz shipping rules, Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and whether fighting in Lebanon can be contained.
The main variable is still oil. A durable agreement that keeps Hormuz open would reduce the geopolitical risk premium in crude, help ease inflation pressure, and support risk assets. But the process is likely to remain volatile, especially with Israel not directly party to the talks and Iran trying to link progress to a broader ceasefire in Lebanon.
“This is going to allow us to sit together as teams for the first time really in history to figure out what matters most to the respective parties, to settle those issues, to solve those issues, and get to a better tomorrow.”
Major Economic Events:
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge and a look at durable goods orders.
Monday (6/22): None Scheduled
Tuesday (6/23): S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, S&P flash U.S. services PMI
Wednesday (6/24): New home sales, U.S. leading economic indicators
Thursday (6/25): Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Core PCE index, Core PCE year over year, Durable goods orders, Durable goods orders ex-transportation, GDP revision, Initial jobless claims, New York Fed President John Williams speaks, PCE index, PCE year over year, Personal income, Personal spending
Friday (6/26): Advanced retail inventories, Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced wholesale inventories, Consumer sentiment final
What We’re Watching:
Core PCE
The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose 0.2% MoM in April, down from 0.3% in March and below expectations for another 0.3% increase. On the surface, that is a welcome slowdown and gives markets some evidence that monthly inflation pressure may be cooling.
The year-over-year picture is less comforting. Core PCE rose 3.3% YoY, up from 3.2% in March and still well above the Fed’s 2% target. That keeps the Fed in a difficult position: monthly inflation is improving, but the broader trend is not soft enough to justify a clear pivot toward rate cuts.
Economists expected the following this week:
Core PCE Price Index MoM: +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected
Prior Month: +0.3%
Core PCE Price Index YoY: +3.3% vs. +3.2% prior
Fed Target: 2.0%
“Inflation is a choice. You bet it is. And today, I’m announcing that this committee unambiguously and unanimously decided we are going to deliver on that.”
Durable Goods Orders
New orders for U.S.-manufactured durable goods jumped 7.9% MoM in April to $346 billion, well above forecasts for a 3.5% increase and up from an upwardly revised 1.3% gain in March. It marked the strongest monthly increase since May 2025, signaling that headline manufacturing demand remains resilient.
The strength was heavily driven by transportation equipment, which rose 21.5%, including a 165.9% surge in nondefense aircraft and parts. Capital goods orders also jumped 21%, while fabricated metals, primary metals, and machinery all posted gains. Excluding transportation, orders still rose 1.1%, matching March’s pace.
The one softer spot was business investment. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for future business spending, fell 1.1% after rising 3.9% in March. That makes the report a little less clean than the headline number suggests: aircraft demand drove the upside, but core capex momentum cooled.
Economists expected the following this week:
Durable Goods Orders MoM: +7.9% vs. +3.5% expected
Prior Month: +1.3% revised
Ex-Transportation Orders: +1.1% vs. +1.1% prior
Core Capital Goods Orders: -1.1% vs. +3.9% prior
“The headline number was strong, but the details were more mixed. Aircraft orders drove the surge, while the core business-spending proxy softened.”
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) before investing. To obtain an ETF's prospectus containing this and other important information, please call (866) 498-5677 or view/download a prospectus at https://neosfunds.com. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest.
An investment in NEOS ETFs involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
NEOS ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
NEOS Investments was awarded "Best Options Strategies ETF Issuer ($1bn-$10bn)" at the 2025 ETF Express U.S. Awards. Trackinsight has provided the pre-selection data for ETF issuer shortlists since 2020. To determine candidates, all ETFs that have been listed for the past 12 months are included. For each award category, an issuer’s ETFs within that category are combined to calculate total AUM. Issuers with less than USD 100 million in average assets over the review period are excluded. Shortlists are formed based on the percentage change in AUM over the prior 12 months, and in some categories, issuers are further grouped by asset-size tiers. The resulting shortlist goes into an industry voting survey, with each company limited to 10 internal votes. After review, votes are tallied to determine the winners.
QQQI was awarded "Best New Active ETF" at the 2025 ETF.com Awards. There were ~25 submissions for "Best New Active ETF". The criteria for inclusion were that the ETF needed to be launched in 2025 within the actively managed category. Judges looked at a number of factors including performance, flows, uniqueness, and overall value-add to the ETF space.
This content is sponsored by NEOS Investments. The creator is compensated by NEOS to discuss NEOS ETFs. This content is for informational purposes only, and is not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Before investing, carefully review the NEOS ETFs prospectus at neosfunds.com.
Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.
Cover Image Source: Amazon News
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION
No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.
The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.
Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.
By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.
Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy
If you have any questions please contact us at [email protected]