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Welcome to your new week.
During crazy times like these in the market, it’s best to stay well-informed. If you want full access to our Week in Review editions, monthly livestreams, portfolio access, monthly stock deep dives, and more — consider upgrading your subscription.
Congrats to those that ended up following along with some of my recent oil investing ideas — including IPI (+51% YTD) and USO (+58% YTD).
Read on for everything you need to watch over the coming days.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Adobe, Casey’s, Dick’s, Dollar General, and Oracle highlight the week
Monday (3/9): Casey’s, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Vail Resorts, ZIM
Tuesday (3/10): ABM Industries, AeroVironment, BioNTech, Franco-Nevada, Kohl’s, NIO, Oracle
Wednesday (3/11): Campbell’s, Descartes Systems, Petco, UiPath
Thursday (3/12): Adobe, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar General, SentinelOne, Ulta Beauty
Friday (3/13): VEON
What We’re Watching:
Adobe (ADBE)
Adobe (-18.9% YTD) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the company can convert its aggressive push into generative AI into sustained revenue growth — and stabilize sentiment after a volatile stretch for software stocks.
Last quarter, Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.19 billion (+10% YoY) and $5.50 in adjusted EPS, with strong demand across Creative Cloud, Acrobat, and AI-powered tools like Firefly helping drive engagement and subscription growth.
Heading into the release, investors will be watching three key themes:
Monetization of generative AI features, including Firefly and AI assistants
Digital Media ARR growth, a core indicator of subscription momentum
Enterprise demand for Experience Cloud, particularly marketing and analytics tools
Despite solid fundamentals, the stock has faced pressure as investors debate whether generative AI will strengthen Adobe’s ecosystem or disrupt traditional creative software pricing models, making this earnings report an important sentiment check for the broader software sector.
“We are leveraging AI to accelerate innovation and serve expanding audiences of creators and enterprises.”
Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle (-21.5% YTD) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the company can maintain its rapid cloud-driven growth while funding one of the tech industry’s most aggressive AI infrastructure expansions.
Last quarter, Oracle delivered $16.1 billion in revenue (+14% YoY) and $2.26 in adjusted EPS, supported by strong cloud demand. Cloud revenue rose 34% to $8.0 billion, while Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) — a key platform for AI workloads – surged 68% year-over-year, driven by large enterprise and hyperscaler deployments.
Heading into the release, investors will be watching closely for:
OCI growth and AI-related cloud demand
Backlog conversion from massive contracted revenue commitments
Capital expenditure levels tied to AI data-center buildouts
Free-cash-flow pressure from infrastructure spending
Oracle has positioned itself as a major AI infrastructure provider alongside hyperscalers, but the market is increasingly focused on whether heavy spending today will translate into durable long-term margins and recurring cloud revenue.
“Remaining performance obligations surged as new commitments from major AI customers accelerated.”
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
The energy markets will be closely watched as the Middle East conflict sends oil above $100/barrel.
Middle East Conflict Sends Oil above $100 as Hormuz Traffic Halts
Oil markets will be closely watched this week after crude surged above $100 per barrel, with prices recently trading near $107, following escalating conflict in the Middle East and a near standstill in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day — about one-fifth of global seaborne crude supply — normally flows through the strait, but shipping disruptions have reportedly stranded ~16 million barrels per day behind the chokepoint. The supply shock has triggered the fastest oil rally since the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
Geopolitical tensions intensified after Donald Trump ordered diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia, while leadership changes in Iran and reports of Israeli strikes on Iranian fuel depots added to the uncertainty. The disruption has already begun filtering into consumer prices, with the average U.S. gasoline price rising 11% week-over-week to about $3.32 per gallon.
Markets reacted quickly to the geopolitical shock and weaker labor data, with major U.S. equity futures pulling lower to start the week. Investors will be watching closely for signs of whether tanker traffic resumes, how long supply remains constrained, and whether the spike in energy prices begins to feed back into inflation expectations and global growth forecasts.
“We are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production, if it goes on for weeks, it will reverberate across the global economy.”
Live Nation (LYV) Reaches Settlement in Federal Antitrust Case, Will Avoid Being Split Up
Sources: Hussein/Getty Images for Live Nation
The U.S. Department of Justice has reached a settlement with Live Nation that resolves its high-profile antitrust lawsuit against the concerts and ticketing giant, removing the possibility that the company would be broken up. Instead of forcing a structural separation between Live Nation and Ticketmaster, the agreement focuses on behavioral changes designed to boost competition.
Under the proposed deal, Live Nation would face restrictions on exclusive ticketing contracts and make it easier for rival promoters to compete for shows at venues the company controls. Roughly 10 states have agreed to the framework so far, though others — including New York — may continue pursuing separate legal action.
The lawsuit, originally filed in 2024, alleged that Live Nation illegally dominates the market for major concerts, harming artists, venues, and fans. Critics have long complained about the so-called “Ticketmaster tax,” with fees often adding 20% or more to ticket prices. For Live Nation, the settlement removes a major regulatory overhang and avoids the existential risk of a forced breakup. But the company will still face ongoing scrutiny from regulators and state attorneys general as competition in live entertainment continues to evolve.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“In the lawsuit, Live Nation and Ticketmaster are accused of engaging in a variety of anticompetitive practices, including locking venues into long-term exclusive ticketing contracts and retaliating against rivals and venues that seek to use alternatives. The DOJ and states also say that Live Nation has monopolized the market for large, outdoor amphitheaters in the US.”
Major Economic Events:
A look at inflation readings and U.S. GDP.
Monday (3/9): None Scheduled
Tuesday (3/10): Existing Home Sales, NFIB Optimism Index
Wednesday (3/11): Existing Home Sales, NFIB Optimism Index
Thursday (3/12): Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit
Friday (3/13): Consumer Sentiment (Prelim), Core PCE Index, Core PCE Year Over Year, Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders ex-Transportation, GDP (First Revision), Job Openings (JOLTS), PCE Index, PCE Year Over Year, Personal Income, Personal Spending
What We’re Watching:
PCE Index
U.S. inflation slowed to 2.4% YoY in January, down from 2.7% in the prior two months and slightly below expectations of 2.5%. The drop marks the lowest annual inflation reading since May and reflects easing price pressures across several key categories.
Energy played a major role in the slowdown, with prices falling 0.1% after rising 2.3% in December. Gasoline prices declined sharply (-7.5%), while fuel oil also dropped (-4.2%), helping offset still-elevated natural gas costs. Inflation also cooled in used vehicles (-2%), while price increases moderated slightly in food and shelter.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.2%, below expectations for a 0.3% increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.5% YoY – its lowest level since March 2021.
Economists expect the following this week:
CPI (YoY): 2.4% vs. 2.7% prior
Core CPI (YoY): 2.5% vs. 2.6% prior
CPI (MoM): 0.2% vs. 0.3% prior
“Even a modest data center boom could substantially raise retail electricity prices and hence annual inflation. For example, under plausible assumptions about the data center build-out and utilization, annual PCE inflation in 2030 would increase by between 0.04 and 0.13 percentage points. Slower-than-expected growth of renewable energy sources—wind and solar—could nearly double the inflationary effect.”
U.S. GDP
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, well below expectations of 3% and down sharply from 4.4% growth in Q3, marking the slowest expansion since early 2025. The deceleration was driven primarily by softer consumer spending and a sharp contraction in government outlays tied to the recent government shutdown.
Consumer spending — the backbone of the U.S. economy — slowed to 2.4% from 3.5%, with goods purchases slipping slightly while services spending remained solid at 3.4%. Trade also turned into a modest drag, with exports falling 0.9% after a surge the previous quarter.
The biggest headwind came from government spending and investment, which dropped 5.1%, subtracting nearly 0.9 percentage points from overall GDP. On the more positive side, business investment strengthened.
For the full year, the U.S. economy grew 2.2% in 2025, slowing from 2.8% in 2024. This week — we’ll be seeing the first revision to Q4 2025 GDP numbers — which are expected to show slightly lower growth.
Economists expect the following this week:
Q4 GDP (QoQ Annualized): +1.4% vs. +4.4% prior
Consumer Spending: +2.4% vs. +3.5% prior
Government Spending: -5.1% vs. +2.2% prior
“Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note following the release that the shutdown was a larger-than-expected drag during the fourth quarter, but he expects this impact to be reversed in the first quarter of 2026, when his firm forecasts annualized GDP growth will hit 3%.”
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