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Welcome to your new week.
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Key Earnings Announcements:
The earnings season slows down — but we still get big updates from Accenture, CarMax, Cintas, Costco, Micron, and more.
Monday (9/22): Firefly
Tuesday (9/23): Autozone, Micron
Wednesday (9/24): Cintas, Kb Homes
Thursday (9/25): Accenture, Blackberry, Carmax, Costco, Jabil
Friday (9/26): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Costco (COST)
Source: Costco Earnings Deck
Costco (COST) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Tuesday after the bell, with investors focused on membership renewal strength, the impact of its September 2024 fee increase, and global traffic trends. The stock has been supported by its recurring membership model and consistent traffic, but expectations remain high amid mixed discretionary spending.
Membership fee income reached $1.24 billion last quarter, up 10.4% YoY, driven by continued growth in paid memberships, now at 79.6 million worldwide. Executive members reached 37.6 million, accounting for roughly 73% of sales, while renewal rates stood at 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada and 90.2% worldwide. These metrics will remain central this quarter, alongside guidance on warehouse expansion and digital performance.
I’ll be watching for commentary on how well consumers are absorbing the membership fee hike, whether discretionary categories like electronics continue to lag food and staples, and how international growth is contributing to comps.
“We're remaining agile as a situation with tariffs evolves, while also supporting the commitments we've made with our long-term suppliers… In the U.S., we pulled forward some items that we had planned for the summer and sourced additional locally produced goods to reduce tariff impacts and ensure that we were in stock. Actions such as these are allowing us to continue to provide great values for our members, while also delivering value to our shareholders.”
Costco (COST) Stock Performance, 5-Year chart, Seeking Alpha
Micron (MU)
Micron (MU) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Tuesday after the bell, with AI-driven demand for DRAM and high-bandwidth memory setting a high bar for results. Shares have surged this year as hyperscaler spending and AI workloads fuel stronger pricing and margin expansion.
The company recently raised guidance, projecting ~$11.15 billion in revenue, non-GAAP gross margin of about 44.5%, and EPS of ~$2.69. That compares with Q3 FY2025 results of $9.3 billion in revenue (up ~37% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.91, underscoring the scale of acceleration.
Key debates this cycle include how sustainable DRAM pricing power is, whether hyperscaler demand is locking in multi-year commitments, and how CapEx guidance reflects management’s confidence in the durability of AI-led growth.
“I think that such optimism from Wall Street analysts before Micron's upcoming earnings release is absolutely fair because AI tailwinds are accelerating. Since Micron has strong record of success in capitalizing on favorable secular trends, I am confident that the latest industry news are all positive long-term catalysts for the company.”
Micron Technology (MU) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
St. Louis’s Fed President sees “limited room” for more rate cuts, the market is cooling off to start the week, and Oracle announced new Co-CEOS.
St. Louis Fed President Sees “Limited Room” for More Rate Cuts
Sources: Brendan McDermid | Reuters | CNBC
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem expressed support for last week’s quarter-point interest rate cut but cautioned against additional reductions. He described the cut as a precautionary measure to support the labor market while maintaining full employment. Musalem said the current monetary policy stance, between modestly restrictive and neutral, is appropriate but noted there is limited room for further easing without becoming overly accommodative.
He highlighted concerns about inflation, including the impact of tariffs, while observing that financial conditions remain supportive. The federal funds rate is now targeted between 4% and 4.25%, which he considers close to neutral for economic growth. Musalem emphasized balancing labor market support and inflation control to avoid undesirable outcomes.
“I believe there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative, and we should tread cautiously.”
U.S. Stocks Pull Back as Investors Look for Fresh Catalysts
U.S. stocks are pulling back from record highs as traders awaited new catalysts to drive the market further. The S&P 500 fell -0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 declined -0.1%, following last week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate cut aimed at addressing labor market weakness. Analysts attributed the modest decline to profit-taking and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, rather than any serious market warning signs.
Cryptocurrencies are also sinking, with over $1.5 billion in bullish bets liquidated, triggering sharp losses in tokens like Ether and crypto-linked stocks such as Coinbase. Oracle shares rose on news that it will help create a secure U.S. version of TikTok’s algorithm and promoted two executives to co-CEOs (more on this below). Pfizer advanced after announcing a $4.9 billion acquisition of Metsera Inc., aiming to strengthen its position against rivals in the pharmaceutical sector.
We’re entering a seasonally-weak time of the year and it’s important to be prepared for volatility before hopefully new highs into the year’s end.
“It is more likely that it’s just the stock market pulling back a little bit to digest its recent (strong) gains. And some concerns about a possible US government shutdown could be having an impact as well.”
Oracle (ORCL) Continues Making Big Moves
Current Oracle CEO Safra Cats, Source: Data Center Dynamics
Oracle announced that Clay Magouyrk, president of cloud infrastructure, and Mike Sicilia, president of industries, will serve as co-CEOs. Current CEO Safra Catz will transition to executive vice chair on the company’s board. The company has benefited from the AI boom, leveraging its cloud infrastructure and Nvidia GPUs to compete with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Magouyrk led the development of Oracle’s Gen2 cloud platform, while Sicilia oversaw applications for vertical industries.
Oracle’s stock has surged about +85% this year, driven by cloud growth and strong performance obligations, which rose 359% year-over-year to $455 billion. Catz emphasized that now is the right moment to pass leadership to the next generation, and Oracle also promoted two other executives to key roles in operations and finance.
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Let’s see what’s to come this week and beyond for Oracle — especially with the TikTok deal!
Major Economic Events:
Core PCE and Durable Goods Orders are set to headline this week’s economic updates in the U.S.
Monday (9/22): Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speech, Fed Governor Stephen Miran speech, New York Fed President John Williams speech, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech
Tuesday (9/23): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech, S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, S&P flash U.S. services PMI
Wednesday (9/24): New home sales, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
Thursday (9/25): Advanced retail inventories, Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced wholesale inventories, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech, Durable-goods minus transportation, Durable-goods orders, Existing home sales, Fed Gov. Michael Barr speech, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech, Initial jobless claims, New York Fed President John Williams opening remarks, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
Friday (9/26): Consumer sentiment (final), Core PCE index, Core PCE (year-over-year), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech, PCE index, PCE (year-over-year), Personal income, Personal spending, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech
What We’re Watching:
Core PCE
Core inflation, measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose +0.1 percentage point in July to a +2.9% annual rate, the highest since February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Overall inflation increased +2.6% year-over-year, with the monthly gain at +0.2%.
Consumer spending grew +0.5% on the month, while personal income rose +0.4%, both in line with forecasts. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose +0.3% for the month, driven largely by higher services costs. Despite the increase, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month if labor-market weakness persists.
Economists expect the following this week:
Core PCE (MoM): +0.2% vs. +0.3% the month prior
Core PCE (YoY): +2.9%, in-line with the month prior
“You have to love it when a plan comes together. Today's numbers on both the personal consumption, expenditure, and income, and spending, were a right down the middle of the fairway. This leaves the door wide open for the Fed to cut rates in September and likely again in October and in December. The treasury yield curve is responding appropriately with rates coming down both on the two year and the 10 year.”
Durable Goods Orders
Last month, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods fell in July, marking declines in three of the past four months. Overall, orders dropped by -$8.8 billion, or -2.8%, reaching a total of $302.8 billion, following a sharper -9.4% decrease in June.
When excluding transportation, however, new orders saw a modest increase of +1.1%, while excluding defense, they fell by -2.5%. The decline was largely driven by transportation equipment, which also fell in three of the last four months, dropping -$10.9 billion, or -9.7%, to $101.7 billion. This segment remains the primary contributor to the overall slowdown in durable goods orders.
This week, economists expect a -0.5% MoM change, compared to -2.8% the month before.
"Falling durable goods orders in July reflected a decline in volatile aircraft orders, whereas core capital goods orders rebounded more forcefully than anticipated.”
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