👉 Week in Review: 1/26/25

Together with Public Alpha

Happy Sunday, everyone.

This week was a big one! We heard earnings announcements from a ton of companies + everyone’s favorite hedge fund manager Nancy Pelosi! 

If you’ve not yet seen my TikTok video sharing her most recent trades, I highly recommend watching it.

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Portfolio Updates (YTD Performance):

Calling out that I’ve rebalanced my “Long Risky / Fun Ideas” section of the portfolio. Some of the biggest winners have larger weighting, and I cut a few names out completely (Crocs, Adobe, and SentinelOne).

Everything in the Portfolio Tracker is up-to-date, so please go take a look!

When updating the portfolio tracker I noticed Google Finance is having a weird glitch right now where they’re not recognizing the ticker “META” for Meta Platforms. That’s causing a few functions to be messed up. I’m sure it’ll be fixed soon, so don’t worry!

As I shared last week, Oscar Health is the newest position in the portfolio. As of this week’s Nancy Pelosi trading news, I was inspired to open a small ($1,000) position in Tempus AI (TEM). I believe this company has the opportunity to grow into something larger than any of us can properly comprehend at the moment considering their TAM, partnerships (95% of top 20 pharma companies) and their profitability.

Yes, I’m still bullish on Ethereum and excited to see a $5,500 to $7,000 ETH over the coming months.

Week in Review — Too Long, Didn’t Read:

Netflix added +41M subscribers in 2024, American Express added +13M new cardholders in 2024, Union Pacific sees an uptick in demand because of inflation, a breakdown of Trump’s Executive Orders, Oracle & Microsoft may want TikTok, Zuckerberg is ready to spend BIG on AI, Existing home sales hit their lowest level since 1995, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell for the first time in 6 months.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Netflix added +41M subscribers in 2024, American Express added +13M new cardholders in 2024, and Union Pacific sees an uptick in demand because of inflation.

• Netflix (NFLX)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $10.3 billion, an increase of +16% YoY

Operating Income: $2.3 billion, an increase of +22% YoY

Profits: $1.9 billion, an increase of +99% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We maintain a leadership position in engagement, revenue and profit. We’re focused on improving all aspects of our service and, combined with the return in 2025 of our biggest shows (Squid Game, Wednesday and Stranger Things), we’re optimistic heading into the new year.”

My Takeaway

• American Express (AXP)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $17.2 billion, an increase of +10% YoY

Profits: $2.2 billion, an increase of +12% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“2024 was another strong year for American Express. We delivered record revenues of $65.9 billion, up 10 percent on an FX-adjusted basis, record net income of $10.1 billion, and earnings per share of $14.01, up 25 percent year-over-year.

We also saw record levels of annual Card Member spending, record net card fee revenues, and a record 13 million new card acquisitions, and we continued to add millions of merchant locations to our network globally.

We exited the year with increased momentum, with billings growth accelerating to 8 percent in the fourth quarter, driven by stronger spending from our consumer and commercial customers during the holiday season. We maintained our best-in-class credit performance and disciplined expense management throughout the year.”

My Takeaway

• Union Pacific (UNP)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $6.1 billion, compared to $6.2 billion last year

Operating Income: $2.5 billion, an increase of +5% YoY

Profits: $1.8 billion, an increase of +7% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

Our strong fourth quarter results represent a great capstone to a very successful year for Union Pacific. The team has fully embraced our strategy to lead the industry in safety, service, and operational excellence.

That commitment has produced industry leading financial results in 2024, punctuated by our strong finish to the year. We will carry this momentum into 2025 as we seek to unlock the full potential of the UP franchise.”

My Takeaway

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

A breakdown of Trump’s Executive Orders, Oracle & Microsoft may want TikTok, and Zuckerberg is ready to spend BIG on AI.

• Breakdown of Trump’s Executive Orders

President Donald Trump’s second term has begun with an unprecedented flurry of executive actions aimed at fulfilling his campaign promises. Within the first 100 hours, he signed record-breaking numbers of executive orders focused on border security, deportation of criminal illegal immigrants, merit-based hiring, and reducing government regulations.

The administration secured over $1 trillion in investments, including $500 billion for an AI infrastructure project (more explained here on my TikTok) and $600 billion in proposed Saudi investments, alongside plans to revive U.S. manufacturing plants. Major actions included rescinding Biden-era energy regulations, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, and ending federal affirmative action hiring mandates.

The Trump administration restored strict immigration enforcement, shutting down CBP One — arresting over 1,000 illegal immigrants, and beginning deportation flights with military assistance.

Common-sense policies like prioritizing energy independence and merit-based hiring in federal agencies have been reinstituted. High-profile actions include declassifying the JFK files, pardoning January 6 participants and police officers, and ending the federal EV mandate. Backing up his "Promises Made, Promises Kept” motto — President Trump aims to bolster American prosperity and national security in these historic opening days.

• Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT) Rumored to Take Over TikTok

Oracle and Microsoft are reportedly in talks to take over TikTok’s global operations, with Oracle overseeing its algorithm, data collection, and software updates — while Microsoft may invest.

ByteDance would retain a minority stake, and the deal aims to minimize Chinese ownership. President Trump, however, denied direct involvement with Oracle, stating he has spoken with “substantial people” about the app’s future and plans to decide within 30 days.

Others reportedly interested in TikTok include Elon Musk and real estate billionaire Frank McCourt. Oracle, which already provides much of TikTok’s server backbone, could play a key role in ensuring U.S. oversight. This news follows Trump’s executive order granting TikTok a 75-day reprieve to address divestment requirements. Microsoft’s specific role remains unclear, and Walmart, involved in prior talks, is not participating this time.

• Zuckerberg Expects Meta (META) to Spend $60B on AI

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to invest $60–$65 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 to expand the company's AI infrastructure.

A massive data center, equivalent in size to a significant part of Manhattan, will be built, and the company aims to end the year with over 1.3 million GPUs and 1 gigawatt of compute power. Zuckerberg described 2025 as a pivotal year for AI, with Meta's efforts driving innovation, core business growth, and American tech leadership.

Meta's AI initiatives include a digital assistant projected to serve over 1 billion users and an AI engineer contributing to R&D. While AI remains a long-term investment, Meta continues to rely on digital advertising for most of its revenue.

The company's stock hit an all-time high of $647.50 following the announcement.

Major Economic Events:

Existing home sales hit their lowest level since 1995, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell for the first time in 6 months.

• Existing Home Sales and Prices Are Out of Whack

U.S. existing home sales in 2024 fell to 4.06 million, the lowest level since 1995, due to high mortgage rates, record home prices, and rising costs like property taxes and insurance.

Mortgage rates have hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making homes increasingly unaffordable for many buyers, while tight inventory has kept prices elevated.

Although the Federal Reserve cut short-term rates in 2024, mortgage rates recently surpassed 7%, dampening market momentum. Some economists see potential for improvement in the spring, with signs of buyers adjusting to the higher rate environment, as December home sales rose for the third consecutive month.

Despite this, sales remain far below pre-pandemic levels, frustrating both buyers and sellers and impacting industries like mortgage lending and real estate.

Homebuilders have benefited from the limited existing-home inventory but face challenges due to high interest rates. The national median home price in December was $404,400, up +6% from the previous year, driven by tight supply.

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Sinks

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 71.1 in January 2025, marking its first decline in six months and a -3.9% drop from December’s reading of 74.0.

This represents a -10% decrease compared to a year ago, with sentiment declines observed across income, age, and wealth groups. While personal finance assessments improved for the fifth consecutive month, concerns about unemployment increased, with 47% of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the coming year.

Buying conditions for durable goods softened slightly but remained 30% better than six months ago due to expectations of future price increases. Inflation expectations rose, with year-ahead expectations reaching 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, and long-term expectations rising to 3.2%.

Despite stronger incomes, consumers expressed growing concern about the economic outlook, with sentiment now below historical averages and at the 19th percentile of data since 1978.

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