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Welcome to your new week, and Happy Veterans Day.
Today, the United States honors those who have served our country in the armed forces.
From myself and the entire Grit team, thank you to all of those that have committed so much of their lives to protecting our freedoms. We appreciate you!
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Now let’s dive into everything you should be aware of this week.
Key Earnings Announcements:
A wide variety of companies are reporting this week — Alibaba, Disney, Monday.com, On Holdings, Shopify and more.
Monday (11/11): Monday.com
Tuesday (11/12): Bitfarms, CAVA, Cronos Group, Hertz, Instacart, Marathon Digital, Novavax, On Holdings, Shopify, Soundhound
Wednesday (11/13): Bitcoin Depot, Cisco, Hut 8
Thursday (11/14): Applied Materials, Disney, Intuitive Machines, JD.com, Oklo
Friday (11/15): Alibaba, Spectrum Brands
What We’re Watching:
Disney (DIS)
Disney (+10% YTD) is set to report Q4 results before the bell on Thursday, with investors watching closely for updates on its streaming and theme park businesses. Analysts expect a +35% profit boost, driven by a +6% revenue increase. Streaming profitability should continue to improve, benefiting from recent price hikes and Disney’s crackdown on password sharing.
However, the theme park segment faces challenges after underperforming last quarter.
Analysts are generally bullish — with Seeking Alpha recently upgrading the stock to a Strong Buy. Despite long-term underperformance (+9% over 10 years) compared to the S&P 500 (+187% over 10 years), some believe Disney’s content strategy is improving.
Investors are also on the lookout for a potential dividend increase, which could boost shareholder returns.
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Shopify (SHOP)
Source: Shopify Q2 Earnings Deck
Shopify (+12% YTD) is set to announce its Q3 earnings on Tuesday before the market opens. Over the past year, the company’s stock has climbed an impressive +37%, though gains in 2024 have slowed to around +10%. Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating marks the stock with a Hold, while Wall Street analysts hold a more bullish outlook with a consensus Buy rating.
Shopify has been expanding — with over 450 new launches in two years — boosting the share of revenue generated from each transaction on its platform to record levels. Coupled with high margins, scalability, and strong free cash flow supported by ~$4 billion in net cash, Shopify remains well-positioned for continued growth, but investors should watch for volatility.
Shopify, Inc. (SHOP) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Coinbase has more institutional eyes on it than ever & there are numerous conferences this week: CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Conference, Fortune’s Global Forum, & Oppenheimer’s Generative AI Event.
Coinbase (COIN) is Leading the Way Post-Election
Shoutout to Charlie Bilello for compiling the following returns since the election (as of Sunday):
Coinbase: +40%
Tesla: +28%
Bitcoin: +15%
Banks: +8.9%
Small Caps: +6.2%
S&P 500: +3.7%
US Dollar: +1.5%
Long-Term Treasuries: -0.3%
International Stocks: -1.2%
Oil: -2.1%
Gold: -2.2%
China: -3.6%
Trump Media: -6%
Volatility: -27%
Why is Coinbase stock rising more than Bitcoin itself — and most major alt coins? Could it be because institutions are piling into Bitcoin via Coinbase?
We’ll be keeping an eye on these names / sectors over the coming days and weeks. Very exciting times to be in the investor class!
If you’re not and want a new brokerage — join Public today.
This is not a paid endorsement by Public, but we do receive an affiliate payout for new customers driven through the link above.
CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Investor Summit
The 14th CNBC Delivering Alpha Summit focuses on navigating uncertainty and uncovering opportunities for meaningful returns. Featuring CNBC’s top experts alongside influential voices in business and investing — this event will offer a dynamic mix of insights and discussions on the future of markets.
A few of the key speakers at the event: Ben Affleck, Gerry Cardinale (RedBird Capital), David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital), Nelson Peltz (Trian Partners), Anne Walsh (Guggenheim), Solita Marcelli (UBS), Saira Malik (Nuveen), and more.
Pretty much — it’s one celebrity, a lot of Chief Investment Officers, and all of CNBC’s largest contributors. This event typically leads to newsworthy takeaways.
Fortune Global Forum 2024
At the Fortune Global Forum, top CEOs and leaders from the Fortune Global 500 will come together to explore the disruptive forces reshaping industries. Examples include AI growth, geopolitical risks, and economic regulations.
Notable speakers include: Tom Brady, Brian Cornell (Target), Gita Gopinath (IMF), Boris Johnson, John Stankey (AT&T), Kate Brandt (Google), Chris Cocks (Hasbro), Alex Chriss (PayPal), Jim Fitterling (Dow), Lan Guan (Accenture), and more.
Oppenheimer Generative AI Event
On November 16 for Oppenheimer’s Generative AI event, where they explore the impact of AI on investing and showcase cutting-edge tools like Microsoft’s Soul Machines and Adobe Firefly. The overarching goal is to showcase how generative AI is transforming industries of all kinds.
The event will also feature a panel on investment opportunities in the Gen AI value chain, led by Oppenheimer’s top analysts.
The key takeaway will likely be the AI demos from Microsoft and Adobe. One of the taglines for the event is “Come interact with real robots and AI Avatars and be inspired by technological innovation!”
We’ll see if either company reveals something that we haven’t already seen.
Major Economic Events:
12 Fed Speakers and very important data related to retail, inflation, and shipments.
Monday (11/11): Veteran’s Day holiday, bond market closed
Tuesday (11/12): Fed Gov. Christopher Waller Speaks, NFIB Optimism Index, Philly President Harker Speaks, Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks
Wednesday (11/14): Cass Freight Index, Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Dallas Fed Pres Logan Speaks, KC Pres Schmid Speaks, Monthly U.S. Federal Budget, NY Fed Pres Williams Speaks, STL Fed Pres Musalem Speaks
Thursday (11/15): Core PPI, Fed Reserve Chair Powell Speaks, Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index
Friday (11/16): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, Industrial Production, U.S. Retail Sales
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Price Index
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to release on Wednesday. Economists predict a +2.6% annual increase in headline inflation, up from +2.4% in September, with a +0.2% MoM rise matching last month's growth.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is forecasted to rise +3.3% annually & have a +0.3% monthly gain.
"The good news is that the trend remains broadly disinflationary, but the bad news is that services inflation is still a problem… Inflation is dying, but not dead."
Retail Sales
Retail sales data for October — the last report before the holiday shopping season kicks off — will be released this Thursday.
Economists expect a +0.3% monthly increase, which would be slightly lower than +0.4% the month before.
“Barring a sharp downturn in the labor market, we expect consumer spending to continue growing moderately amid signs that frugal consumers are seeking cheaper options for the holiday season, and even mid- to high-income groups are under financial pressure.”
— Bloomberg Economics after last month’s retail sales data release
Cass Freight Index
The Cass Freight Index tracks North American freight activity, offering insights into market trends based on $38 billion in annual freight spend. It provides valuable data on shipping across various industries and is a key resource for understanding supply chain and economic conditions.
The Cass Freight Index shipments dropped -1.7% MoM in September, following a +1.0% gain in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, shipments declined -2.6%. YoY, shipments were down -5.2% — worsening from August’s -1.9% drop.
More details can be found here.
“September data from Cass Information Systems showed “signs of price stabilization” even as volumes continued to reflect a soft demand environment.”
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Cover Image Credit: Disney Experiences
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