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Together with FIRE ETFs
Welcome to your new week.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know this week.
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Key Earnings Announcements:
ASML and TSM shed light on global computing while Goldman Sachs and other banks outline economic expectations.
Monday (4/14): FirstBank, Goldman Sachs
Tuesday (4/15): Albertsons, Bank of America, Citi, Interactive Brokers, Johnson-Johnson, PNC, United Air Lines
Wednesday (4/16): ASML, Citizens Financial Group, Great Southern Bank, Progressive, Travelers, US Bancorp
Thursday (4/17): Ally, American Express, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, TSMC, United Health Group
Friday (4/18): N/A
What We’re Watching:
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Goldman Sachs reports its earnings on Tuesday, after a -13.7% YTD drop despite a Q4 2024 net revenue of $12.6B — up +16% YoY — driven by their investment banking business segment experiencing a +32% revenue surge. The stock trades at a P/E of 10.5x, a discount to peers like Morgan Stanley’s 14.2x, with diversified growth in asset management (+15% YoY) and trading (+10% YoY). Analysts expect a -5% revenue dip to $11.9B.
Tariffs threaten a 2-3% EPS hit (Goldman’s own estimate), while analysts and other banks see recession fears (including JPMorgan’s 60% odds) pressuring trading revenue. We’ll learn a lot this week about how resilient this $153B giant truly is during turbulent market conditions.
“Goldman Sachs is trading at a low P/E ratio despite strong historical growth, suggesting potential for market repricing and stock outperformance.”
Goldman Sachs (GS) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)
Source: Taiwan Semi Q4 ‘24 Earnings Deck
Taiwan Semiconductor enters the spotlight on Thursday with Q1 earnings, after a +42% revenue surge to $25.6B in Q1 (beating the $25B forecast) fueled by AI chip demand. Q4 earnings beat expectations — delivering $26.36B in sales, up +29% YoY — and a +54% earnings jump. But shares are down -35% YTD, impacted by tariffs and geopolitical fears.
CEO C.C. Wei projects AI revenue doubling in 2025, but a potential $1B fine over Huawei chips and Trump’s looming semiconductor tariffs (possibly in May, per Commerce Secretary Lutnick) are spooking the market. Analysts flag margin pressure from U.S. semiconductor fabrication plant (fab) expansions and the China-Taiwan geopolitical overhang is still a big red flag. JPMorgan downgraded TSM, citing excessive spending, but a $100B U.S. investment push is considered a bright spot by many analysts. A strong AI outlook will be something that all analysts will be hoping to hear about.
“Taking a longer-term view, it is clear Taiwan Semiconductor has delivered impressive growth over the past decade, despite some cyclicality. Its revenue has more than tripled, while Samsung Electronics has only grown revenue by ~22%, and Intel has seen negative revenue growth.”
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
Flip-flopping tariff exemptions, Amazon’s satellite launch, and Meta’s blockbuster case with the Federal Trade Commission.
Tariff Exemptions…?
The Trump administration’s Friday exemption of smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors from reciprocal tariffs — sparing tech giants like Apple and TSMC from 145% China levies — offered a brief moment of much relief, with many analysts expecting tech stocks to soar on Monday. However, the relief was short-lived as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned Sunday on ABC’s This Week that new semiconductor tariffs may come, risking higher costs for consumers.
President Trump then posted the following clarification on his Truth Social Account at the end of the weekend:
It’s hard to have full clarity from the outside-looking-in, but this administration clearly hasn’t been on the same page with some tariff announcements. We’ll see if that changes moving forward.
"He's saying they're exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they're included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two. So these are coming soon.”
"The mass confusion created by this constant news flow out of the White House is dizzying for the industry and investors and creating massive uncertainty and chaos for companies trying to plan their supply chain, inventory, and demand"
Amazon (AMZN) Satellite Launch
Source: Amazon
A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is set to launch 27 of Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellites today, April 14, from Cape Canaveral. This will mark the first production batch for its 3,200-satellite internet “mega-constellation.” After a weather scrub on April 9, ULA’s 551 configuration — packing five solid rocket boosters — aims to rival SpaceX’s Starlink by beaming high-speed internet globally.
Despite the madness of the 2025 stock market, Amazon continues to be one of the world’s leading innovators. I’m more-than-happy to be a holder of AMZN and intend on being one for a very long time.
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
“We’ve designed some of the most advanced communications satellites ever built, and every launch is an opportunity to add more capacity and coverage to our network… We’ve done extensive testing on the ground to prepare for this first mission, but there are some things you can only learn in flight, and this will be the first time we’ve flown our final satellite design and the first time we’ve deployed so many satellites at once.
No matter how the mission unfolds, this is just the start of our journey, and we have all the pieces in place to learn and adapt as we prepare to launch again and again over the coming years.”
Meta Faces Off with the FTC
Source: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images
Meta Platforms is facing off with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission in a high-stakes antitrust trial that kicks off today, alleging its 2012 Instagram ($1B) and 2014 WhatsApp ($19B) buys illegally crushed competition. The FTC claims Meta monopolized personal social networking. According to Adweek, Instagram alone drives over half of Meta’s U.S. advertising revenue.
The FTC is seeking to potentially unwind the deals and force Meta to sell Instagram, which could slash Meta’s $160B ad business. Analysts fear an ad spend decline of at least -20% if Instagram were to be forcibly spun-off. Meta argues that it competes with TikTok and YouTube, not a narrow market. Some believe that Zuckerberg was supportive of President Trump’s election in order to have more support with this specific case.
I generally doubt that a case like this would actually result in a material change for Meta’s business, but the legal professor’s words below are pretty strong…
Meta Platforms (META) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha
"They're going to say the real question is: are consumers better off as a result of this merger? They'll put on a lot of evidence that Instagram became what it is today because it benefited from being owned by Facebook…
The FTC’s lawsuit is one of the stronger of the tech cases that have been brought in the last five years.”
Major Economic Events:
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and U.S. Retail Sales highlight this week’s pieces of economic news.
Monday (4/14): Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speaks, Philly Fed President Harker Speaks
Tuesday (4/15): Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Import Price Index
Wednesday (4/16): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Cleveland Fed President Hammack Speaks, Industrial Production, Retail Sales
Thursday (4/17): Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey
Friday (4/18): San Fran Fed President Mary Daly Speaks
What We’re Watching:
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index cratered to -20.0 in March 2025, a 26-point plunge to its lowest reading since May 2023. This massively missed forecasts of -0.75.
New orders (-14.9) and shipments (-8.5) tanked, though inventories hit a two-year peak. Employment and hours dipped, while input prices surged at the fastest clip in over two years — with selling prices also going up. Business optimism waned for the second straight month, capital spending stayed soft, as firms brace for persistent input price hikes and tighter supply chains due to tariffs.
Economists expect this month’s reading to feature a -10.0 drop in the index.
“Factory activity in New York State plummeted this month by the most in nearly two years, a survey showed on Monday, with new orders falling sharply and input prices climbing at the fastest rate in more than two years in the latest sign the economy may be weakening.”
Retail Sales
Wednesday’s March U.S. retail sales report is forecast to climb +1.2%, bouncing back from February’s slim +0.2% rise. Stripping out autos and gas, sales should edge up +0.4%. Amid Trump’s lack of tariff clarity — economists flag growing recession odds, higher prices and policy uncertainty threaten to stall economic growth.
"Big-ticket spending in March and April could see a surge as consumers pull forward those purchases before tariffs take a significant bite, after that, however, we are likely to see a weak consumer spending performance in the second half of the year."
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Cover image source: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images
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